Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
